Put another way, an extreme precipitation event expected once every 10,000 days, or 30 years, in pre-industrial conditions, is expected every 10 to 20 years at 2° warming.
While the study focuses primarily on daily events, the authors note that with increased warming, the probability of “5-day, 15-day, or 31-day temperature and precipitation extremes increase even faster with rising temperatures.”
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“People can argue that we had these kinds of extremes well before human influence on the climate—we had them centuries ago,” the New York Times quoted Fischer as saying. “And that’s correct. But the odds have changed, and we get more of them.”
Commenting on the difficulty of attributing a particular weather event to human-induced global warming, the authors continue:
In fact, it is the “rarest and most extreme weather events”—which the study notes typically have the “highest socio-economic impacts”—that will become increasingly familiar due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.
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